I last wrote about the evolution of civilization and wrapped up by concluding that almost all world-changing inventions involve making it easier to move materials and information. The past century in particular has brought astounding technological marvels, far more impressive than the last several thousand years combined. It seems reasonable to conclude that this next century will put the past to shame, as will the one after that.
But what kinds of things can we expect of future civilization? Predictions of future technology are remarkably hit-and-miss. In the 1950s, people were predicting flying cars by the year 2000. But people in the early 1900s also predicted things like email and television. I think the lesson is that it much easier to move information than matter.
So at the risk of being wrong, let me make my own technology predictions for the future:
Abundant Electricity:
There isn't enough oil to provide for more than a few more decades of consumption at current technology levels. And while our coal and uranium supplies can last for a few centuries, they won't last for a few millenia. But since the use of electricity, every major invention has depended on it. The earth can support life for millions of years, but without a more efficient means of generating electricity, humanity won't be able to survive in its current state for long. Better use of nuclear and solar power will help this. But long term, hopefully humanity will develop some kind of new technology like cold fusion, if its even possible.
Artificial Intelligence:
I believe true AI, one that can pass a full turing test, is the ultimate goal of civilization. An artificial intelligence is essentially a thought generation machines. This is an incredible boon for any area of scientific research, as it enables the easy recruitment of able-minded researchers. Estimates on when this can occur range from decades to centuries, but most scientists believe it is possible. I'm in agreement that this is both technically possible and extremely difficult. There is also the distinct possibility that even after the first AI is created, it takes centuries before more than a handful can be created. The energy requirements for this kind of technology could be unimaginably large in today's terms. But if and when it happens, civilization will change forever. Hopefully for the best.
Matter Synthesis:
A large portion of new discoveries depends on very rare or hard to obtain materials. For example, most superconductive materials require extremely strange composites. Or consider the extraction of aluminum. It requires a crystal that can only be found in large quantities at a specific mine in Greenland. The mine is now empty, but a synthetic version of the crystal is an acceptable substitute. And these days, scientists can even turn lead into gold-- they just don't do it because the energy cost is higher than the value of the gold. A low energy method of creating arbitrary elements and basic crystalline structures will go a long way towards ensuring the technologies we develop can be deployed for lower production costs.
Space Elevator:
The earth can sustain life for millions of years, but eventually this planet will become inhospitable. If humans cannot learn to survive in space or on other planets, we will eventually go extinct. And while a few of the richer nations have space exploration programs, we are nowhere near having a real colony in space, much less the moon, mars, or another solar system. The issue is that the cost of even getting things off of Earth is very high. Each pound of cargo costs on the order of $10,000. There is research into cheaper means of propulsion, but the best hope seems to be a space elevator. Conceptually, a space elevator is a structure connected to earth that is high enough that the top is in geosynchronous orbit with the planet. Then goods could simply by hoisted up for a fraction of the current cost. Think of it as the world's largest dumbwaiter. There are some clear technical challenges to a construction like this, but it would mark the beginning of the industrialization of space.
Disposable Electronics:
For decades, people have talked about how extremely portable computing devices could change our lives. Many people have suggested the logical conclusion is the human/computer hybrid known as a cyborg. In other words, humans will be embedded with microprocessors. I actually think this concept is a bit farfetched. This is primarily because the mere suggestion of this technology offends the moral sensibilities of many people, so it has major political obstacles. But there's clear utility to having processing power everywhere, as shown by the popularity of Apple's iPhone. It's more likely that electronic devices will instead get so cheap and thin that they will be everywhere-- built into the side of a can of soda or on the cover of a book, for example. And all of it will have wireless network connections. This sidesteps the discussion of embedding technology in human flesh while meeting the objective of ubiqutious computer interfaces.
All that said, I'm sure there's another dozen things I haven't even considered. This is such a great time to be alive! Celebrate the extreme unlikelihood of having life at such a wonderful time in history and cherish it. When you think about it, each person's life is much better than they give it credit for, simply because it is life.
Showing posts with label evolution. Show all posts
Showing posts with label evolution. Show all posts
Monday, June 1, 2009
Monday, May 18, 2009
The Meaning of Life
When I was a Christian, one of the biggest comforts was having a well defined purpose to life. The greatest thing was to glorify God. That's easy to do on Sunday, but I figured that if God was as incredible as Christianity claimed, it was worth honoring God every day of my life. After thinking about this for a while, I decided God must care an awful lot about humanity, and seeking the advancement and peace of human civilization was the primary method of bringing God glory on a daily basis. This kind of thinking is supported by Bible texts such as "If you love me, feed my lambs", the parable of the talents, and the parable of the sheep and goats.
Psychologically, losing meaning in life was one of the three hardest parts about converting from Christianity to Atheism. However, I soon realized that removing God from the equation didn't have to change anything. I could still find meaning through the advancement of human civilization.
As a result, I've become interested in the origin and destiny of civilization. I consider a group of people to be a "civilization" when there exists a caste of the population that spends a large portion of time in activities other than the acquisition of food and reproduction. So a group of hunters living in caves wouldn't be a civilization until there is some kind of a chieftain or shaman who is supported through food from the other villagers. Civilization can't advance until people have leisure time to spend on art and science, so the beginning of civilization is when some people first have this free time.
Humans have made three major discoveries that were necessary for civilization to begin. They are language, fire, and agriculture. Language is required to share the complex, learned concepts that are the basis of civilization. Fire is required for cooking, which increases the nutritional value of food, thereby increasing the lifespan and health of the population. And farming is the most crucial of all. Through farming, a group of people can produce more food than they can consume. This both provides a buffer against years of famine and allows a segment of the population to spend time on things other than food production.
Once those three things were in place, the stage was set for the rapid advancement of technology, resulting in a far higher standard of living and population than humans had ever seen. The past 10,000 years of life on Earth have put the previous millions to shame. Of the many things humans have invented and discovered, however, I'd like to list what I consider the most important discoveries. All of these you use on a daily basis, probably without even thinking about it. They are:
Writing:
Creating a writing system is not as easy as most people would think. There's an excellent discussion of why this is hard in the book Guns, Gems and Steel. The basic issue is that pictorial systems (like the Chinese alphabet) require memorizing a different symbol for each word, so learning the system difficult. And phonetic systems require a stronger understanding of phonetic units than most people have, to the extent that most people learn English spelling without even understanding the phonetic backing.
The Wheel and Roads:
These two inventions together are necessary to move large quantities of goods over long distances, and is a crucial part of trade with other cultures. Trade is the mechanism by which different cultures share their discoveries.
Currency:
In trade and barter systems, it's easy for a baker who wants meat and a butcher who wants bread to work out a deal. But what happens when the butcher instead wants a knife, the blacksmith wants a table, and its the carpenter who wants bread? Now you have to orchestrate a four way trade. When you expand this problem even to a town of just 1000 people, its complexity as an NP complete problem becomes apparent. Money provides a linear time solution. Every trades what they have for money, then trades the money for what they want.
Mathematics:
Most of the time, having directions or instructions is meaningless unless they are precise. Understanding the relationships between numbers is required for measurements, trades, and general mechanics.
Plumbing:
Once you have even 10,000 people living in the same general area, getting fresh water and removing sewage becomes a genuine problem. Without a good system of moving water, the population is much more likely to contract and spread diseases. Sewers make cities less susceptible to plagues.
The Printing Press:
Even if you have a written language, the production of written documents is time consuming without a printing press. The press allows for mass production of books, which in turn puts written materials in the hands of the common person. That makes it the precursor of widespread education. Historically, the printing press was also one predecessor of the Protestant Reformation, as it enabled the Bible to be translated out of Latin and into a language the average person understood (at least if it were read to them).
Electricity:
Fire is a powerful source of energy, but it's difficult to use. Contrast this with electricity, a power source that can be transmitted over large distances and even stored for later use. Among its many uses, electricity provided more efficient means of lighting buildings. This in turn meant humans could be productive for more hours in the day. It also created more efficient climate control systems for buildings, which allowed humans to live in harsher climates. And it enabled the creation of more efficient factories using the assembly line for production.
Radio Communication:
Three thousand years ago, kings were happy that their exact instructions could be written down and sent to another place in the kingdom within a month or less. But due to the discovery of radio waves, encoded messages can be broadcast across thousands of miles in mere seconds. With radio communication, decisions require crucial information can be made in minutes rather than weeks or even months.
The Internet:
I am convinced that the internet is by far the greatest invention of our generation. While radio and television allowed rich corporations and governments to communicate quickly and easily, the internet has put that power in the hands of the everyone. Massive amounts of data can be send anywhere on the entire planet in a matter of seconds due to the power of the internet. It has brought about an era in which anyone with access to a computer can express their thoughts. And if Twitter is any indication, almost none of it is worth reading. But I hope that this blog can be one corner of the internet where the information is worthwhile.
When I see how far humans have come, I'm excited for the future. Some other week I'll write about some options for what The Next Big Thing(tm) might be. But given the increasingly rapid pace of technology development, it could be something we see in our lifetime. You might notice that everything on this list has to do with more efficient movement of ideas, matter, or energy, so that's a clue for what kinds of technology this next century could bring.
Psychologically, losing meaning in life was one of the three hardest parts about converting from Christianity to Atheism. However, I soon realized that removing God from the equation didn't have to change anything. I could still find meaning through the advancement of human civilization.
As a result, I've become interested in the origin and destiny of civilization. I consider a group of people to be a "civilization" when there exists a caste of the population that spends a large portion of time in activities other than the acquisition of food and reproduction. So a group of hunters living in caves wouldn't be a civilization until there is some kind of a chieftain or shaman who is supported through food from the other villagers. Civilization can't advance until people have leisure time to spend on art and science, so the beginning of civilization is when some people first have this free time.
Humans have made three major discoveries that were necessary for civilization to begin. They are language, fire, and agriculture. Language is required to share the complex, learned concepts that are the basis of civilization. Fire is required for cooking, which increases the nutritional value of food, thereby increasing the lifespan and health of the population. And farming is the most crucial of all. Through farming, a group of people can produce more food than they can consume. This both provides a buffer against years of famine and allows a segment of the population to spend time on things other than food production.
Once those three things were in place, the stage was set for the rapid advancement of technology, resulting in a far higher standard of living and population than humans had ever seen. The past 10,000 years of life on Earth have put the previous millions to shame. Of the many things humans have invented and discovered, however, I'd like to list what I consider the most important discoveries. All of these you use on a daily basis, probably without even thinking about it. They are:
Writing:
Creating a writing system is not as easy as most people would think. There's an excellent discussion of why this is hard in the book Guns, Gems and Steel. The basic issue is that pictorial systems (like the Chinese alphabet) require memorizing a different symbol for each word, so learning the system difficult. And phonetic systems require a stronger understanding of phonetic units than most people have, to the extent that most people learn English spelling without even understanding the phonetic backing.
The Wheel and Roads:
These two inventions together are necessary to move large quantities of goods over long distances, and is a crucial part of trade with other cultures. Trade is the mechanism by which different cultures share their discoveries.
Currency:
In trade and barter systems, it's easy for a baker who wants meat and a butcher who wants bread to work out a deal. But what happens when the butcher instead wants a knife, the blacksmith wants a table, and its the carpenter who wants bread? Now you have to orchestrate a four way trade. When you expand this problem even to a town of just 1000 people, its complexity as an NP complete problem becomes apparent. Money provides a linear time solution. Every trades what they have for money, then trades the money for what they want.
Mathematics:
Most of the time, having directions or instructions is meaningless unless they are precise. Understanding the relationships between numbers is required for measurements, trades, and general mechanics.
Plumbing:
Once you have even 10,000 people living in the same general area, getting fresh water and removing sewage becomes a genuine problem. Without a good system of moving water, the population is much more likely to contract and spread diseases. Sewers make cities less susceptible to plagues.
The Printing Press:
Even if you have a written language, the production of written documents is time consuming without a printing press. The press allows for mass production of books, which in turn puts written materials in the hands of the common person. That makes it the precursor of widespread education. Historically, the printing press was also one predecessor of the Protestant Reformation, as it enabled the Bible to be translated out of Latin and into a language the average person understood (at least if it were read to them).
Electricity:
Fire is a powerful source of energy, but it's difficult to use. Contrast this with electricity, a power source that can be transmitted over large distances and even stored for later use. Among its many uses, electricity provided more efficient means of lighting buildings. This in turn meant humans could be productive for more hours in the day. It also created more efficient climate control systems for buildings, which allowed humans to live in harsher climates. And it enabled the creation of more efficient factories using the assembly line for production.
Radio Communication:
Three thousand years ago, kings were happy that their exact instructions could be written down and sent to another place in the kingdom within a month or less. But due to the discovery of radio waves, encoded messages can be broadcast across thousands of miles in mere seconds. With radio communication, decisions require crucial information can be made in minutes rather than weeks or even months.
The Internet:
I am convinced that the internet is by far the greatest invention of our generation. While radio and television allowed rich corporations and governments to communicate quickly and easily, the internet has put that power in the hands of the everyone. Massive amounts of data can be send anywhere on the entire planet in a matter of seconds due to the power of the internet. It has brought about an era in which anyone with access to a computer can express their thoughts. And if Twitter is any indication, almost none of it is worth reading. But I hope that this blog can be one corner of the internet where the information is worthwhile.
When I see how far humans have come, I'm excited for the future. Some other week I'll write about some options for what The Next Big Thing(tm) might be. But given the increasingly rapid pace of technology development, it could be something we see in our lifetime. You might notice that everything on this list has to do with more efficient movement of ideas, matter, or energy, so that's a clue for what kinds of technology this next century could bring.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Social Mentality
I cannot help but comment on the results of the recent American presidential election, in which Barack Obama became the first non-white to be elected president. As a jaded American, I recognize that America has its share of both wonders and problems. But I have never been more proud of America than I was on this past election night. To me, the election of Barack Obama is symbolically a major victory in America's war against racism. And were Obama the Republican candidate and McCain the Democratic one, I would be no less overjoyed. Some things in life are more important than what percent of a candidate's positions we agree with.
I want to stress that this election is a victory over racism, not slavery. Most cultures in pre-modern times practiced slavery, but it was enslavement of people from the same ethnic background. Slavery in America and the Caribbean isles differed from other forms in slavery in that the belief was also coupled with a sentiment of racial superiority. So even after the abolition of slavery in 1863, the underlying tone of racism permeated much of American life. In contrast, the Britain empire outlawed slavery in 1833, but their enslavement wasn't particularly racially biased, so their past two centuries haven't been filled with racial tension. Abraham Lincoln won the war on slavery in 1865, but completely decimating the southern American states couldn't change the racist opinions that much of the country still retained. The election of Barack Obama to the office of President is proof that a large percent of America is now racially blind-- the ethnic background of a candidate is not a reason to select against them.
Of course, not all of America feels that way. That's why this election is a sign of major progress on the issue of racial discrimination, but it doesn't represent the end of it. Looking at the final electoral vote distribution, this election was heavily slanted towards Barack Obama but unanimous. For example, Alabama and Mississippi again voted for the conservative candidate as they've done for decades. But Virginia and North Carolina both voted for Barack Obama, two states that split away from America during the American Civil War because they wanted the right to keep slavery legal (among other things).
This might seem like a trite point, but each major population center in America has its own local way of thinking. People in Los Angeles are more liberal than people in Salt Lake City, for example. The southern states tend to be more conservative than New England states. And the way they vote is a reflection of their local societal beliefs. If this were not the case, every city and state would vote exactly the same way. There's nothing magical about the geography that makes people think in certain ways. The social mentality is a purely contained in the minds of all people in that local society, and if you think about it, that is an incredible thing.
For North Carolina to vote for a black man 147 years after it tried to secede from the United States, the entire cultural mentality had to change. It does not change quickly either. It wasn't until all the adults of that generation died, along their children and grandchildren, that the majority of the state decided that maybe blacks and whites were equals. That should be a sign of how easy it is to believe the first thing you're told and how hard it is to consider outside opinions.
More often than not, people belong to the political party and religion of their parents, quite apart from the actual merits of those positions. Over 90% of America is Christian and well under 10% of India is Christian, despite extensive missionary work. Even if there were strong, logical reasons to believe in the Christian religion, it's clear that those reasons are not why America is a Christian nation. If those reasons were so logically compelling, then India would be a Christian nation too.
Like it or not, if your political and religious views closely match your family's and city's views, the odds are high that you haven't thought very hard about them. That doesn't mean your beliefs are wrong, but if they are right, you probably don't know why they are. It means you accept the basic beliefs of society's "hive mind", and you've ceded some of your thinking.
While this can be dangerous, accepting society's beliefs without too many questions can be really helpful. I'm not advocating, "question everything", but, "question everything important". You might be wondering why that is, and what this has to do with Artificial Intelligence. Next week I'll explain what I mean.
I want to stress that this election is a victory over racism, not slavery. Most cultures in pre-modern times practiced slavery, but it was enslavement of people from the same ethnic background. Slavery in America and the Caribbean isles differed from other forms in slavery in that the belief was also coupled with a sentiment of racial superiority. So even after the abolition of slavery in 1863, the underlying tone of racism permeated much of American life. In contrast, the Britain empire outlawed slavery in 1833, but their enslavement wasn't particularly racially biased, so their past two centuries haven't been filled with racial tension. Abraham Lincoln won the war on slavery in 1865, but completely decimating the southern American states couldn't change the racist opinions that much of the country still retained. The election of Barack Obama to the office of President is proof that a large percent of America is now racially blind-- the ethnic background of a candidate is not a reason to select against them.
Of course, not all of America feels that way. That's why this election is a sign of major progress on the issue of racial discrimination, but it doesn't represent the end of it. Looking at the final electoral vote distribution, this election was heavily slanted towards Barack Obama but unanimous. For example, Alabama and Mississippi again voted for the conservative candidate as they've done for decades. But Virginia and North Carolina both voted for Barack Obama, two states that split away from America during the American Civil War because they wanted the right to keep slavery legal (among other things).
This might seem like a trite point, but each major population center in America has its own local way of thinking. People in Los Angeles are more liberal than people in Salt Lake City, for example. The southern states tend to be more conservative than New England states. And the way they vote is a reflection of their local societal beliefs. If this were not the case, every city and state would vote exactly the same way. There's nothing magical about the geography that makes people think in certain ways. The social mentality is a purely contained in the minds of all people in that local society, and if you think about it, that is an incredible thing.
For North Carolina to vote for a black man 147 years after it tried to secede from the United States, the entire cultural mentality had to change. It does not change quickly either. It wasn't until all the adults of that generation died, along their children and grandchildren, that the majority of the state decided that maybe blacks and whites were equals. That should be a sign of how easy it is to believe the first thing you're told and how hard it is to consider outside opinions.
More often than not, people belong to the political party and religion of their parents, quite apart from the actual merits of those positions. Over 90% of America is Christian and well under 10% of India is Christian, despite extensive missionary work. Even if there were strong, logical reasons to believe in the Christian religion, it's clear that those reasons are not why America is a Christian nation. If those reasons were so logically compelling, then India would be a Christian nation too.
Like it or not, if your political and religious views closely match your family's and city's views, the odds are high that you haven't thought very hard about them. That doesn't mean your beliefs are wrong, but if they are right, you probably don't know why they are. It means you accept the basic beliefs of society's "hive mind", and you've ceded some of your thinking.
While this can be dangerous, accepting society's beliefs without too many questions can be really helpful. I'm not advocating, "question everything", but, "question everything important". You might be wondering why that is, and what this has to do with Artificial Intelligence. Next week I'll explain what I mean.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Anatomy Of The Brain
Last week I wrote in brief about the differences between conscious and non-conscious thought, and how experiments show humans use both. Even the most primitive animal brain is an extremely complicated organ, and the human brain is obviously the most advanced brain we've encountered. Conceptually there are three main sections of the human brain, corresponding to the evolutionary processes that produced the brain.
Pardon the aside, but I wanted to say a word to the Christian readers who believe in Intelligent Design instead of evolution. Feel free to interpret "evolution" with "how God chose to create life". Your personal belief about how humans came to exist won't change your interpretation of what I have to say, so don't let my choice of language get in the way. Remember, I was a Christian for 30 years. I was taught creationism by my parents. In high school I believed the theory of evolution, and just said "God used evolution to create humans". Now I just think "humans were created through evolution". I still think people who believe in Intelligent Design are wrong given the data, but I see no reason to be condescending or judgmental about it.
As I was saying, there are three main sections of the brain. At the core is the so called "Reptilian Brain", or more formally the brain stem. This section handles basic reflexive responses such as "fight or flight", mating instincts, and the fear of other species. It also handles exactly one emotion: rage. Next is the Mammalian Brain, or Limbic system. This is the area of the brain that handles all other emotions, as well as concepts like family, culture, and attachments. Some aspects of conscious thought and self-identity are handled by the mammalian brain as well. Last is the Neo-cortex, which is responsible for higher level thought such as speech, reasoning, imagination, and speculation.
While there's a clear physical boundary between the reptilian and mammalian brains, the division between mammalian (limbic) and neo-cortex is not as clear, and there seems to be a stronger bleed between the functions. For example, some conscious thoughts are handled by the mammalian brain while others are handled by the neo-cortex.
Humans have all three brain sections, as do higher mammals such as other primates and larger mammals. Small primates such as rodents do not have a neo-cortex, although they do have the limbic system and reptilian brain. And as the name implies, all reptiles have the reptilian brain, but lack the mammalian brain and neo-cortex. So the brain sections correspond to different evolutionary forks. The primary feature that separates mammals from reptiles is not hair or internal gestation, but a more advanced brain.
If that's true, then reptiles don't actually have conscious thought. They simply respond to stimuli in the same fashion every time. But mammals, having a memory, can learn from past experiences and modify their behavior. Perhaps this is how mammals survived the dinosaurs after a natural disaster hit the earth. Dinosaur brains weren't programmed to handle the "meteor crashed into the earth and all your normal food dies" situation, whereas mammals could learn to find new food sources.
In computer science terms, the reptilian brain is analogous to a state machine, or a simple circuit board. It's pure hardware, and if you give it the same set of inputs, it produces the same set of outputs every time. It has no memory. The mammalian brain is more like a simple computer program, in that its responses are based both on sensory input and on past memories and experiences. Running the same computer program multiple times might produce different results. Mammals have the ability to learn throughout their life while reptiles do not. And since the neo-cortex handles imagination, reasoning, and "what if?" scenarios, it's closer in function to an operating system. An OS can run multiple programs in parallel, similar to the neo-cortex's ability to think about multiple thoughts at the same time, even conflicting thoughts.
This biological framework provides an interesting context from which to answer the questions "What are emotions?" and "Can a computer have emotions?" Some day I'll write on that, but there's a lot more to say than should be stuffed at the end of this column. In the meantime you'll just have to speculate.
Pardon the aside, but I wanted to say a word to the Christian readers who believe in Intelligent Design instead of evolution. Feel free to interpret "evolution" with "how God chose to create life". Your personal belief about how humans came to exist won't change your interpretation of what I have to say, so don't let my choice of language get in the way. Remember, I was a Christian for 30 years. I was taught creationism by my parents. In high school I believed the theory of evolution, and just said "God used evolution to create humans". Now I just think "humans were created through evolution". I still think people who believe in Intelligent Design are wrong given the data, but I see no reason to be condescending or judgmental about it.
As I was saying, there are three main sections of the brain. At the core is the so called "Reptilian Brain", or more formally the brain stem. This section handles basic reflexive responses such as "fight or flight", mating instincts, and the fear of other species. It also handles exactly one emotion: rage. Next is the Mammalian Brain, or Limbic system. This is the area of the brain that handles all other emotions, as well as concepts like family, culture, and attachments. Some aspects of conscious thought and self-identity are handled by the mammalian brain as well. Last is the Neo-cortex, which is responsible for higher level thought such as speech, reasoning, imagination, and speculation.
While there's a clear physical boundary between the reptilian and mammalian brains, the division between mammalian (limbic) and neo-cortex is not as clear, and there seems to be a stronger bleed between the functions. For example, some conscious thoughts are handled by the mammalian brain while others are handled by the neo-cortex.
Humans have all three brain sections, as do higher mammals such as other primates and larger mammals. Small primates such as rodents do not have a neo-cortex, although they do have the limbic system and reptilian brain. And as the name implies, all reptiles have the reptilian brain, but lack the mammalian brain and neo-cortex. So the brain sections correspond to different evolutionary forks. The primary feature that separates mammals from reptiles is not hair or internal gestation, but a more advanced brain.
If that's true, then reptiles don't actually have conscious thought. They simply respond to stimuli in the same fashion every time. But mammals, having a memory, can learn from past experiences and modify their behavior. Perhaps this is how mammals survived the dinosaurs after a natural disaster hit the earth. Dinosaur brains weren't programmed to handle the "meteor crashed into the earth and all your normal food dies" situation, whereas mammals could learn to find new food sources.
In computer science terms, the reptilian brain is analogous to a state machine, or a simple circuit board. It's pure hardware, and if you give it the same set of inputs, it produces the same set of outputs every time. It has no memory. The mammalian brain is more like a simple computer program, in that its responses are based both on sensory input and on past memories and experiences. Running the same computer program multiple times might produce different results. Mammals have the ability to learn throughout their life while reptiles do not. And since the neo-cortex handles imagination, reasoning, and "what if?" scenarios, it's closer in function to an operating system. An OS can run multiple programs in parallel, similar to the neo-cortex's ability to think about multiple thoughts at the same time, even conflicting thoughts.
This biological framework provides an interesting context from which to answer the questions "What are emotions?" and "Can a computer have emotions?" Some day I'll write on that, but there's a lot more to say than should be stuffed at the end of this column. In the meantime you'll just have to speculate.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Armchair Neuroscience
I'm really grateful for my undergraduate education at the University of Chicago. I believe it's the best liberal arts school in the country, in large part because it lacks the name recognition of Harvard or Yale while still placing academically in the top ten undergraduate institutions in America. No one goes to the University of Chicago for the fame or connections they might get at Harvard, and as a result the school attracts only those students who really want to learn. At the University of Chicago, they teach you how to think and analyze everything.
The joke in college was that a University of Chicago student didn't need to know anything about a subject to have an opinion on it. This is pretty much true. I distinctly remember getting an A on a paper about The Brother's Karamazov when I had only read the first quarter of the book. The trick was to relate the concepts discussed in class with the material I had actually read and with other texts read in that class. While I'm sure my professor would have been mortified to find this out, it speaks a lot about learning to analyze abstract concepts and come to conclusions that happen to be right.
In other words, The University of Chicago taught me to bullshit well.
Most of the time I talk about a topic, I really do understand the subject matter. But I'm not willing to let a lack of expertise or study prevent me from sharing my opinion, so today's topic is neuroscience. As a disclaimer, I've never studied this subject in an official capacity in my life. All the information I have is from personal reading into other studies, most of which are (I think) peer reviewed.
There! That's a more accurate disclaimer than you'll hear from any journalist, and yet they are often no better qualified than I am to write about these topics. In particular, I recently read an article on msnbc.com that hypothesized that your brain could be controlled by an inner zombie.
Yes, that's really their conclusion. And by "conclusion" I mean "hypothesis supported by circumstantial evidence that's phrased as a question so no one can refute your claim because you're not officially making one". Since there's no challenge in ridiculing a claim like this, let me instead give a fair and impartial summary of the article. Then I'll rip it to shreds and propose a hypothesis that better fits Occam's Razor by several orders of magnitude.
I'll admit the term "inner zombie" is just a term chosen to generate interest in the article. And in some sense it worked-- I'm linking to it. All they really mean by inner zombie is a thought process that's not conscious and not (always) connected to the rational decision making. The article cites some studies where people are blinded by deactivating the visual processing section of their brain, and then shown a word. The people have no conscious knowledge of the word, but when they are asked to "guess" what word might have been shown, they properly guess the word with much higher than expected accuracy. There's also a study that shows people who are temporary blinded can still reflexively react to visual information they can't see. And while the article doesn't mention it, there's also a study done on people who are blind because their brain doesn't process images even though their eyes are fine. Compared to other blind people, these people do a much better job than of dodging obstacles while walking down the street, like other people or sign posts.
I'd like to note that these results are all from real, peer reviewed studies. Scientists aren't questioning the validity of these results. But they also aren't jumping to the same conclusion that MSNBC did. Here's the basic argument the article makes:
But the brain is a really strange organ. The reasons the brain work this way are rooted in the differences between human brains, standard mammal brains, and the reptilian brain. Next week I'll talk more about these things and explain why I think dogs have consciousness but lizards do not.
The joke in college was that a University of Chicago student didn't need to know anything about a subject to have an opinion on it. This is pretty much true. I distinctly remember getting an A on a paper about The Brother's Karamazov when I had only read the first quarter of the book. The trick was to relate the concepts discussed in class with the material I had actually read and with other texts read in that class. While I'm sure my professor would have been mortified to find this out, it speaks a lot about learning to analyze abstract concepts and come to conclusions that happen to be right.
In other words, The University of Chicago taught me to bullshit well.
Most of the time I talk about a topic, I really do understand the subject matter. But I'm not willing to let a lack of expertise or study prevent me from sharing my opinion, so today's topic is neuroscience. As a disclaimer, I've never studied this subject in an official capacity in my life. All the information I have is from personal reading into other studies, most of which are (I think) peer reviewed.
There! That's a more accurate disclaimer than you'll hear from any journalist, and yet they are often no better qualified than I am to write about these topics. In particular, I recently read an article on msnbc.com that hypothesized that your brain could be controlled by an inner zombie.
Yes, that's really their conclusion. And by "conclusion" I mean "hypothesis supported by circumstantial evidence that's phrased as a question so no one can refute your claim because you're not officially making one". Since there's no challenge in ridiculing a claim like this, let me instead give a fair and impartial summary of the article. Then I'll rip it to shreds and propose a hypothesis that better fits Occam's Razor by several orders of magnitude.
I'll admit the term "inner zombie" is just a term chosen to generate interest in the article. And in some sense it worked-- I'm linking to it. All they really mean by inner zombie is a thought process that's not conscious and not (always) connected to the rational decision making. The article cites some studies where people are blinded by deactivating the visual processing section of their brain, and then shown a word. The people have no conscious knowledge of the word, but when they are asked to "guess" what word might have been shown, they properly guess the word with much higher than expected accuracy. There's also a study that shows people who are temporary blinded can still reflexively react to visual information they can't see. And while the article doesn't mention it, there's also a study done on people who are blind because their brain doesn't process images even though their eyes are fine. Compared to other blind people, these people do a much better job than of dodging obstacles while walking down the street, like other people or sign posts.
I'd like to note that these results are all from real, peer reviewed studies. Scientists aren't questioning the validity of these results. But they also aren't jumping to the same conclusion that MSNBC did. Here's the basic argument the article makes:
- People show the ability to reflexively process and react to visual information even when they consciously report blindness.
- Therefore an unconscious process has control over their conscious minds.
- Perhaps all consciousness is controlled by these unconscious processes and consciousness is a myth.
But the brain is a really strange organ. The reasons the brain work this way are rooted in the differences between human brains, standard mammal brains, and the reptilian brain. Next week I'll talk more about these things and explain why I think dogs have consciousness but lizards do not.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Little Lies
I read an exceptionally good essay by Paul Graham entitled, "Lies We Tell Kids". It talks about white lies, the kind you tell to protect people rather than manipulate them. It's worth reading in full, but let me summarize what I took out of it:
People usually lie because the listener cannot emotionally or mentally handle the truth. While this is often the best thing for the listener at present, it has a cost: They do not understand reality as it truly is. They are unprepared to handle that truth when they encounter it in another fashion.
As I wrote earlier, I see strong parallels between designing AI and being a parent. There's a lot to be said for the "lies" that we as AI designers tell our AI: "No really, you can have perfect information about the entire world. And if you have to spend a long time thinking, that's okay. The entire world will stop and wait for you to decide." Whenever we let our AI cheat at the game, look up information it shouldn't know, or otherwise do things a player can't do, we are in some sense lying to our AI about what reality is like. And the price we pay is this:
We live in fear that our AI will encounter a game situation where the player will know the AI has cheated.
I spend a lot of time talking about good AI and bad AI, and why it's often worth the time to write good AI. But I'm not going to say we shouldn't lie to our bots! I recognize that "bad AI" has a place in AI design. Sometimes a corner must be cut because a problem is simply too difficult. And often these are not isolated exceptions. It's possible to write enjoyable AI that cuts an awful lot of corners as long as you know the right corners to cut.
For example, a bot can get away with almost anything if the player can't see the bot. The amount of cheating a bot can get away with dramatically decreases once the player actually watches the bot, in the same way that a magician's tricks only work when you watch the hand he wands you to watch.
The real key to writing good AI is learning which corners to cut and which problems must be explicitly solved in a human-like manner. In other words, it's about determining when to write bad AI and when to write good AI. In BrainWorks, I certainly erred on the side of too much good AI, but I think this is still a long term benefit. Once someone has solved the problem (and released the source code), everyone can reap the benefits and we can all move onto harder problems. But actually writing artificial intelligence that doesn't cheat about anything is an excruciatingly difficult problem. An AI that does everything like a human does would appear to observers to be a human. It could pass a Turing Test, the holy grail of Artificial Intelligence research.
When I say "Holy Grail", I mean it in more ways than one. Even the most optimistic estimates on when we'll be able to create a truly artificial mind say it won't be done for decades. My personal estimates are that it will be done in 300 to 1000 years. And some people claim that it is literally impossible to create an artificial mind, that it so complex that it can only be evolved or created by God (depending on your philosophical preference).
If you want an example of what roughly 700 years of research will give you, the atomic bomb was created only 500 years after the birth of Leonardo da Vinci. Think about how much science advanced in those 500 years. While that time was centuries long, it was punctuated by thousands of little scientific discoveries about how the universe worked. Einstein couldn't have had his flash of insight about how Newton was slightly wrong if Newton hadn't done work to come up with equations that were 99.9999% right.
I believe the next 700 years of AI Research (give or take a little) will be similarly punctuated. Humanity's journey to the creation of an artificial mind will be punctuated by little advancements. No one person could do all the work necessary to design everything needed for a true artificial mind, but every time an AI designer chooses to do a bit of "good AI" rather than cutting corners with "bad AI", we get one step closer to the final goal, even though the destination is light years away. I will not fault anyone for writing AI that cheats; I've done the same. But writing AI that cheats even a little less than usual is worthy of high praise.
People usually lie because the listener cannot emotionally or mentally handle the truth. While this is often the best thing for the listener at present, it has a cost: They do not understand reality as it truly is. They are unprepared to handle that truth when they encounter it in another fashion.
As I wrote earlier, I see strong parallels between designing AI and being a parent. There's a lot to be said for the "lies" that we as AI designers tell our AI: "No really, you can have perfect information about the entire world. And if you have to spend a long time thinking, that's okay. The entire world will stop and wait for you to decide." Whenever we let our AI cheat at the game, look up information it shouldn't know, or otherwise do things a player can't do, we are in some sense lying to our AI about what reality is like. And the price we pay is this:
We live in fear that our AI will encounter a game situation where the player will know the AI has cheated.
I spend a lot of time talking about good AI and bad AI, and why it's often worth the time to write good AI. But I'm not going to say we shouldn't lie to our bots! I recognize that "bad AI" has a place in AI design. Sometimes a corner must be cut because a problem is simply too difficult. And often these are not isolated exceptions. It's possible to write enjoyable AI that cuts an awful lot of corners as long as you know the right corners to cut.
For example, a bot can get away with almost anything if the player can't see the bot. The amount of cheating a bot can get away with dramatically decreases once the player actually watches the bot, in the same way that a magician's tricks only work when you watch the hand he wands you to watch.
The real key to writing good AI is learning which corners to cut and which problems must be explicitly solved in a human-like manner. In other words, it's about determining when to write bad AI and when to write good AI. In BrainWorks, I certainly erred on the side of too much good AI, but I think this is still a long term benefit. Once someone has solved the problem (and released the source code), everyone can reap the benefits and we can all move onto harder problems. But actually writing artificial intelligence that doesn't cheat about anything is an excruciatingly difficult problem. An AI that does everything like a human does would appear to observers to be a human. It could pass a Turing Test, the holy grail of Artificial Intelligence research.
When I say "Holy Grail", I mean it in more ways than one. Even the most optimistic estimates on when we'll be able to create a truly artificial mind say it won't be done for decades. My personal estimates are that it will be done in 300 to 1000 years. And some people claim that it is literally impossible to create an artificial mind, that it so complex that it can only be evolved or created by God (depending on your philosophical preference).
If you want an example of what roughly 700 years of research will give you, the atomic bomb was created only 500 years after the birth of Leonardo da Vinci. Think about how much science advanced in those 500 years. While that time was centuries long, it was punctuated by thousands of little scientific discoveries about how the universe worked. Einstein couldn't have had his flash of insight about how Newton was slightly wrong if Newton hadn't done work to come up with equations that were 99.9999% right.
I believe the next 700 years of AI Research (give or take a little) will be similarly punctuated. Humanity's journey to the creation of an artificial mind will be punctuated by little advancements. No one person could do all the work necessary to design everything needed for a true artificial mind, but every time an AI designer chooses to do a bit of "good AI" rather than cutting corners with "bad AI", we get one step closer to the final goal, even though the destination is light years away. I will not fault anyone for writing AI that cheats; I've done the same. But writing AI that cheats even a little less than usual is worthy of high praise.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Parallel Evolution
There is a biological concept called parallel evolution which refers to the phenomenon by which the same trait is evolves in the same manner in two different species. For example, all eyes came from the same base creature. But eventually marine and vertebrate animals both evolved the same set of eye advancements, despite lacking a common ancestor that had all those advancements. There are also cultural examples of parallel evolution for concepts like writing and the wheel. In each case, these concepts fit three basic criteria:
So I often wonder what an alien life form would be like, evolved totally independent of life on Earth. What concepts are there about life that really only have one good solution? For example, the structure of the carbon atom makes it highly likely that all life would be carbon based. It's theoretically possible to have silicon based life, because carbon and silicon have similar structures (both have four possible atomic links), although silicon is much heavier, but carbon is by far the most likely. Also, water is a fascinating molecule in liquid form, used for a variety of purposes in life, so it would be very surprising to see a life form that did not use water.
All of life exists somewhere in the density spectrum between water (liquid) and carbon (solid). Some are closer to the water side, like a jellyfish. And some life forms are closer to solids, like trees. Land based animals ("fleshlings") are in the middle, and seem to offer a good mixture between the mobility of a jellyfish and a protective shell of a tree. So it seems likely that any sentient life form will be made of some kind of flesh.
So while we can guess about the physical form of another life form, deducing the nature of an alien brain is much harder. That's primarily because we don't know enough about the human brain to guess which features only have one simple solution. We've only encountered one kind of sentient life: humans ourselves. Would aliens need to sleep? Our research into sleep implies our brains use sleep to process memories, similar to defragmenting a hard disk. Important memories are stored, unimportant ones are discarded. But is our brain's implementation of memory the only way to solve this problem?
Well, computers solve the storage of data-- thoughts and memories-- through completely different means. Human thoughts are fluid. People can easily forget things that happened five seconds ago, or even remember the details incorrectly. Even photographic memory isn't perfect, and seems to decay with age. Short of hardware errors, however, a computer's memory management is perfect. All the data can be retrieved without error. The human brain seems to sacrifice accuracy for much greater storage capacity, access speed, and perhaps processing speed. It's possible there exists an alien life form that has found a solution to the memory problem that incorporates human memory capacity with computer memory accuracy, but I doubt it.
So this line of thought makes me think two things about the field of AI research. The first is that it's crucial to identify the portions of intelligence that only have one good solution and solve them first. For video game AI, these are problems like navigation and visualization. At this point everyone knows the navigation solution is A*, but there's still the question of how the mind identifies the potential way points A* requires. For general AI, the most fundamental problem is language processing, which is devilishly difficult and could take centuries to solve. But having a library of known solutions to basic AI problems will accelerate the ability to create good AI. This is similar to how an operating system abstracts away simple solution to problems a programmer doesn't want to worry about very much, such as processor scheduling and disk space access.
The second thought I have is this nagging feeling we may be designing AI on a fundamentally flawed hardware platform. The computer is excellent when what you want is ultimate precision. Designing AI on a computer involves writing sophisticated algorithms to artificially create the "randomness" that real life seems to incorporate. Perhaps one reason artificial intelligence is so hard is that sentient life requires a system of memories that trades precision for increased data capacity and faster access time the way a human brain does, and we'll never create satisfying AI until we start programming on that kind of a hardware platform. I don't know if that hardware platform is still based on transistors or if it's something more like DNA, but deep down I feel like designing AI on a computers is pushing a square peg into a round hole.
- Very useful when obtained
- Not completely obvious
- Little to no room for implementation differences
So I often wonder what an alien life form would be like, evolved totally independent of life on Earth. What concepts are there about life that really only have one good solution? For example, the structure of the carbon atom makes it highly likely that all life would be carbon based. It's theoretically possible to have silicon based life, because carbon and silicon have similar structures (both have four possible atomic links), although silicon is much heavier, but carbon is by far the most likely. Also, water is a fascinating molecule in liquid form, used for a variety of purposes in life, so it would be very surprising to see a life form that did not use water.
All of life exists somewhere in the density spectrum between water (liquid) and carbon (solid). Some are closer to the water side, like a jellyfish. And some life forms are closer to solids, like trees. Land based animals ("fleshlings") are in the middle, and seem to offer a good mixture between the mobility of a jellyfish and a protective shell of a tree. So it seems likely that any sentient life form will be made of some kind of flesh.
So while we can guess about the physical form of another life form, deducing the nature of an alien brain is much harder. That's primarily because we don't know enough about the human brain to guess which features only have one simple solution. We've only encountered one kind of sentient life: humans ourselves. Would aliens need to sleep? Our research into sleep implies our brains use sleep to process memories, similar to defragmenting a hard disk. Important memories are stored, unimportant ones are discarded. But is our brain's implementation of memory the only way to solve this problem?
Well, computers solve the storage of data-- thoughts and memories-- through completely different means. Human thoughts are fluid. People can easily forget things that happened five seconds ago, or even remember the details incorrectly. Even photographic memory isn't perfect, and seems to decay with age. Short of hardware errors, however, a computer's memory management is perfect. All the data can be retrieved without error. The human brain seems to sacrifice accuracy for much greater storage capacity, access speed, and perhaps processing speed. It's possible there exists an alien life form that has found a solution to the memory problem that incorporates human memory capacity with computer memory accuracy, but I doubt it.
So this line of thought makes me think two things about the field of AI research. The first is that it's crucial to identify the portions of intelligence that only have one good solution and solve them first. For video game AI, these are problems like navigation and visualization. At this point everyone knows the navigation solution is A*, but there's still the question of how the mind identifies the potential way points A* requires. For general AI, the most fundamental problem is language processing, which is devilishly difficult and could take centuries to solve. But having a library of known solutions to basic AI problems will accelerate the ability to create good AI. This is similar to how an operating system abstracts away simple solution to problems a programmer doesn't want to worry about very much, such as processor scheduling and disk space access.
The second thought I have is this nagging feeling we may be designing AI on a fundamentally flawed hardware platform. The computer is excellent when what you want is ultimate precision. Designing AI on a computer involves writing sophisticated algorithms to artificially create the "randomness" that real life seems to incorporate. Perhaps one reason artificial intelligence is so hard is that sentient life requires a system of memories that trades precision for increased data capacity and faster access time the way a human brain does, and we'll never create satisfying AI until we start programming on that kind of a hardware platform. I don't know if that hardware platform is still based on transistors or if it's something more like DNA, but deep down I feel like designing AI on a computers is pushing a square peg into a round hole.
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